The IMF’s October 2025 outlook projects the UAE economy to grow 4.0% in 2025, nearly double the global average of 2.9%.
After expanding 3.9% in 2024, driven by non-oil sectors and record trade, the UAE continues to stand among the world’s fastest-growing advanced economies — a result of strategic diversification and disciplined execution, not short-term momentum.
2024–2025 Snapshot
• GDP growth (2024): +3.9 % — propelled by a 4.6 % expansion in non-oil sectors.
• GDP forecast (2025): +4.0 %, with non-oil GDP expected to rise ~4.5 %.
• Inflation: ≈ 2.4 %, among the lowest globally.
• Public debt: ≈ 30 % of GDP — one of the lowest worldwide.
• Fiscal surplus: ≈ 4 % of GDP, according to the IMF’s 2025 staff review.
• Current-account surplus: ≈ 8 % of GDP, driven by resilient exports and services.
Each number tells the same story — an economy growing through design, not chance.
Core Engines of Expansion
1. Non-Oil Transformation
Non-oil sectors now generate about 75% of GDP, with finance, logistics, construction, and tech driving 4–5% annual growth — proof that diversification is delivering real momentum.
2. Trade Powerhouse
Foreign trade reached a record AED 5.23 trillion (US $1.42 trillion) in 2024, including AED 3 trillion (US $817 billion) in non-oil trade (+15% YoY).
Abu Dhabi’s non-oil trade grew 34.7% YoY in H1 2025 to AED 195 billion — showing strength across every emirate.
3. Investment Magnet
FDI surged 48.7% in 2024 to US $45.6 billion (AED 167.6 billion) — the highest in national history and 37% of all Middle East inflows, ranking the UAE among the world’s top 15 destinations.
4. Fiscal & Financial Resilience
A fiscal surplus, strong reserves, and low debt (~30% of GDP) anchor macro stability. The dirham’s 40-year USD peg and solid credit ratings sustain investor confidence.
5. AI & Innovation Economy
The National AI Strategy 2031 aims to add AED 335 billion to GDP through tech and advanced industries.
Initiatives like the Microsoft × G42 sovereign cloud and MBZUAI (Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence)’s global AI leadership mark the UAE’s next economic frontier.
Global Context
While the U.S. grows around 2% and the Eurozone 1.6%, the UAE expands near 4% — with low inflation, strong finances, and record non-oil growth — a safe-haven economy where stability meets strategy.
The 2030 Trajectory
By decade’s end, the UAE targets:
• GDP ≈ AED 3T (US $816B)
• FDI stock > US $250B
• Non-oil exports > AED 1.2T
• Industrial output AED 300B via Operation 300Bn
• Clean energy pipeline US $54B led by Masdar & hydrogen projects
The UAE’s growth story is no longer about oil, nor even about diversification.
It’s about precision economics — where each policy, partnership, and investment serves a national blueprint.
When the world slows, the UAE accelerates.
When others adjust, the UAE designs.
And the numbers prove it.
